Friday, December 19, 2008

Fed Cuts Key Rate to a Record Low!

(NYtimes.com) WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve entered a new era on Tuesday, lowering its benchmark interest rate virtually to zero and declaring that it would now fight the recession by pumping out vast amounts of money to businesses and consumers through an expanding array of new lending programs.

Going further than expected, the central bank cut its target for the overnight federal funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent and brought the United States to the zero-rate policies that Japan used for years in its own fight against deflation.

Though important as a historic milestone, the move to an interest rate of zero from 1 percent is largely symbolic. The funds rate, which affects what banks charge for lending their reserves to each other, had already fallen to nearly zero in recent days because banks have been so reluctant to do business.

Of much greater practical importance, the Fed bluntly announced that it would print as much money as necessary to revive the frozen credit markets and fight what is shaping up as the nation’s worst economic downturn since World War II.

In effect, the Fed is stepping in as a substitute for banks and other lenders and acting more like a bank itself. “The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth,” it said. Those tools include buying “large quantities” of mortgage-related bonds, longer-term Treasury bonds, corporate debt and even consumer loans.

The move came as President-elect Barack Obama summoned his economic team to a four-hour meeting in Chicago to map out plans for an enormous economic stimulus measure that could cost anywhere from $600 billion to $1 trillion over the next two years.

The two huge economic stimulus programs, one from the Fed and one from the White House and Congress, set the stage for a powerful but potentially risky partnership between Mr. Obama and the Fed’s Republican chairman, Ben S. Bernanke.

“We are running out of the traditional ammunition that’s used in a recession, which is to lower interest rates,” Mr. Obama said at a news conference Tuesday. “It is critical that the other branches of government step up, and that’s why the economic recovery plan is so essential.”

Financial markets were electrified by the Fed action. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 4.2 percent, or 359.61 points, to close at 8,924.14.

Investors rushed to buy long-term Treasury bonds. Yields on 10-year Treasuries, which have traditionally served as a guide for mortgage rates, plunged immediately after the announcement to 2.26 percent, their lowest level in decades, from 2.51 percent earlier in the day.

Yields on investment-grade corporate bonds edged down to 7.215 percent on Tuesday, from 7.355 on Monday. Yields on riskier high-yielding corporate bonds remained in the stratosphere at 22.493 percent, almost unchanged from 22.732 on Monday.

By contrast, the dollar dropped sharply against the euro and other major currencies for the second consecutive day — a sign that currency markets were nervous about a flood of newly printed dollars. Some analysts predict that the Treasury will have to sell $2 trillion worth of new securities over the next year to finance its existing budget deficit, a new stimulus program and to refinance about $600 billion worth of maturing government debt.

For the moment, Mr. Obama and Mr. Bernanke appear to be on the same page, though that could abruptly change if the economy starts to revive. Fed officials have already assumed that Congress will pass a major spending program to stimulate the economy, and they are counting on it to contribute to economic growth next year.

In more normal times, the Fed might easily start raising interest rates in reaction to a huge new spending program, out of concern about rising inflation.

But data on Tuesday provided new evidence that the biggest threat to prices right now was not inflation but deflation.

The federal government reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index fell 1.7 percent in November, the steepest monthly drop since the government began tracking prices in 1947. The decline was largely driven by the recent plunge in energy prices, but even the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, was essentially zero.

Mr. Obama’s goal is to have a package ready when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 6. His hope is that the House and Senate, with their bigger Democratic majorities, can agree quickly on a plan for Mr. Obama to sign into law soon after he is sworn into office two weeks later.

The Fed, in a statement accompanying its rate decision, acknowledged that the recession was more severe than officials had thought at their last meeting in October.

“Over all, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further,” the central bank said.

“Labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment and industrial production have declined.”

The central bank added: “The committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”

With fewer than 10 days until Christmas, retailers from Saks Fifth Avenue to Wal-Mart have been slashing prices to draw in consumers, who have sharply reduced their spending over the last six months. On Tuesday, Banana Republic offered customers $50 off on any purchases that total $125. The clothing retailer DKNY offered customers $50 off any purchase totaling $250.

Ian Shepherdson, an analyst at High Frequency Economics, said falling energy prices were likely to bring the year-over-year rate of inflation to below zero in January.

The Fed has already announced or outlined a range of unorthodox new tools that it can use to keep stimulating the economy once the federal funds rate effectively reaches zero. On Tuesday, Fed officials said they stood ready to expand them or create new ones to relieve bottlenecks in the credit markets.

All of the tools involve borrowing by the Fed, which amounts to printing money in vast new quantities, a process the Fed has already started. Since September, the Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from about $900 billion to more than $2 trillion as it has created money and lent it out. As soon as the Fed completes its plans to buy mortgage-backed debt and consumer debt, the balance sheet will be up to about $3 trillion.

“At some point, and without knowing the timing, the Fed is going to have to destroy all that money it is creating,” said Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve.

“Right now, the crisis is created by the huge demand by banks for hoarding cash. The Fed is providing cash, and the banks want to hoard it. When things start returning to normal, the banks will want to start lending it out. If that much money is left in the monetary base, it would be extremely inflationary.”

Vikas Bajaj contributed reporting from New York.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

FHA PRODUCTS: GOOD FOR YOU

FHA PRODUCTS: GOOD FOR YOU

The ongoing partnership between all housing industry players -- Lenders, Brokers, Realtors®, Builders and FHA -- is critically important to our mutual success. Creating a stable housing market, where homebuyers can make sound financial decisions to achieve the American dream, must be our top priority.

Why use FHA?

Since 1934, FHA has served as an economic backstop working hand-in-hand with lenders to provide consumers with access to safe and affordable loans, even during times of tremendous market volatility as with the current subprime situation.

Developing closer ties to the lender community will allow FHA to broaden its appeal. But there are specific business reasons for lenders to work closely with FHA. Because our products offer less risk for you -- as well as fast closings, competitive rates and foreclosure protections for your clients -- you can qualify more business and improve your bottom line. FHA's positives include:

  • No minimum credit score.
  • Non-traditional credit is acceptable.
  • Low 3% downpayment.
  • Non-occupant, co-borrower is permitted.
  • Expanded qualifying ratios.
  • No prepayment penalties.
  • Fully assumable.
  • Default assistance.
  • Lower premiums.
  • Non-credit qualifying, streamline refinances.
  • Availability: in all areas of the country, provided a market exists for the property and the home meets HUD's minimum property standards.
  • Versatility: may be used to purchase or refinance a new or existing one- to four-family home in urban and rural areas, including manufactured homes on permanent foundations.
  • Adaptability: typically offered at terms of 15 or 30 years.
  • Negotiability: interest rates are negotiated between the borrower and lender.
  • Works well with state and local agency products.

FHA-insured loans are also compatible with industry requirements for:

  • Appraisal and repair;
  • Closing costs; and
  • Lender insurance.

Lenders can take advantage of the Automated Underwriting Systems (AUS) via FHA's TOTAL Scorecard. Plus, there is similar documentation for comparable products between us and the industry, ensuring lender savings in dollars and time.

Innovative FHA solutions such as the streamline 203(k) "buy and repair" mortgage, 95% cash-out refinance, reverse mortgage (HECM) for seniors, and basic construction-permanent or manufactured homes insured financing options are available today to meet borrowers' needs for a better tomorrow.

Now more than ever we need a sustained, coordinated industry-wide effort to strengthen the housing market for future generations. We look forward to forging a closer partnership with you and the greater lender community to achieve our goals together.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Focusing On Foreclosures Now that the election's over, is relief in sight?

(Newsweek) With the election concluded, Washington can turn away from the cable pundits and turn its attention back to the financial crisis. And as they do, one task looms large: What's the best way to help struggling homeowners who are facing foreclosure?

It's an effort that began more than a year ago, when the government began offering programs like FHA Secure and the Hope Now alliance. Those programs are intended to help homeowners refinance into more affordable mortgages or work with lenders to modify their loan terms and reduce their payments. But as unemployment increases and more people face the prospect of foreclosure, critics say these initial programs aren't doing enough to help. With taxpayers putting up hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out financial institutions, it's time for the government to become more proactive about saving people's homes.

While there is no shortage of proposals for what should be done, by far the leading contender is being pushed by Sheila Bair, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This summer, the FDIC took over a failing bank called IndyMac and went to work swiftly modifying thousands of homeowners loans. Instead of doing a painstaking case-by-case analysis of each loan, which is what made existing modification programs move so glacially, IndyMac began applying standard formulas, based on each homeowner's income to determine whether they could reduce the interest rate or extend the term of the loan to create an affordable monthly payment.

Under the FDIC's plan, this type of program would become a nationwide standard. But for the last week the proposal has been bogged down by bureaucratic snafus. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials at the Treasury Department and the White House weren't yet willing to sign-on. Some observers believe the Republican administration wanted to sit on the proposal until after the election, to avoid giving the appearance that it was totally ignoring John McCain's proposal to have the federal government buy up mortgages from troubled homeowners.

Does the FDIC plan make sense? To get an answer, I called Bruce Marks, CEO of the nonprofit Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America. Marks, whom the Boston Globe once called "one of the most feared men in the corporate boardrooms of the nation's leading financial institutions," has spent years advocating for homeowners. In the last year, his group has helped thousands of U.S. homeowners work with banks to modify their mortgages. His take on the FDIC plan: "It's a huge step forward ... Sheila Bair gets it."

As Marks sees it, there are fatal flaws with the existing government programs to help refinance or modify loans. For many homeowners, refinancing is out of the question, since their homes are now worth less than their loan amount, and their credit scores have fallen due to missed mortgage payments. Marks says too many loan modifications don't take a realistic look at whether the homeowner will really be able to make the new payment.

Focusing On Foreclosures Now that the election's over, is relief in sight?

(Newsweek) With the election concluded, Washington can turn away from the cable pundits and turn its attention back to the financial crisis. And as they do, one task looms large: What's the best way to help struggling homeowners who are facing foreclosure?

It's an effort that began more than a year ago, when the government began offering programs like FHA Secure and the Hope Now alliance. Those programs are intended to help homeowners refinance into more affordable mortgages or work with lenders to modify their loan terms and reduce their payments. But as unemployment increases and more people face the prospect of foreclosure, critics say these initial programs aren't doing enough to help. With taxpayers putting up hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out financial institutions, it's time for the government to become more proactive about saving people's homes.

While there is no shortage of proposals for what should be done, by far the leading contender is being pushed by Sheila Bair, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This summer, the FDIC took over a failing bank called IndyMac and went to work swiftly modifying thousands of homeowners loans. Instead of doing a painstaking case-by-case analysis of each loan, which is what made existing modification programs move so glacially, IndyMac began applying standard formulas, based on each homeowner's income to determine whether they could reduce the interest rate or extend the term of the loan to create an affordable monthly payment.

Under the FDIC's plan, this type of program would become a nationwide standard. But for the last week the proposal has been bogged down by bureaucratic snafus. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials at the Treasury Department and the White House weren't yet willing to sign-on. Some observers believe the Republican administration wanted to sit on the proposal until after the election, to avoid giving the appearance that it was totally ignoring John McCain's proposal to have the federal government buy up mortgages from troubled homeowners.

Does the FDIC plan make sense? To get an answer, I called Bruce Marks, CEO of the nonprofit Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America. Marks, whom the Boston Globe once called "one of the most feared men in the corporate boardrooms of the nation's leading financial institutions," has spent years advocating for homeowners. In the last year, his group has helped thousands of U.S. homeowners work with banks to modify their mortgages. His take on the FDIC plan: "It's a huge step forward ... Sheila Bair gets it."

As Marks sees it, there are fatal flaws with the existing government programs to help refinance or modify loans. For many homeowners, refinancing is out of the question, since their homes are now worth less than their loan amount, and their credit scores have fallen due to missed mortgage payments. Marks says too many loan modifications don't take a realistic look at whether the homeowner will really be able to make the new payment.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Foreclosures down sharply after change in notification law

(The Orange County Register) Banks have dramatically scaled backed their foreclosure filings against Orange County homeowners. But will it last?

The big drop in filings started in September. That month lenders filed 871 notices of default in the county, down 65 percent from August and the lowest in 17 months, according to MDA DataQuick. Banks typically file an NOD, which initiates the foreclosure process, after a borrower has missed three or more monthly payments.

Experts say much of that drop was because of a state law that since Sept. 8 requires lenders talk to delinquent borrowers – or demonstrate they have attempted to do so – at least 30 days before filing an NOD and discuss options to avoid foreclosure. The law impacts loans made at the tail end of the housing boom.

However, sources disagree about the long-term impact of the law and on whether actual foreclosures are in decline. Banks seized 1,194 houses and condos in September, down 17 percent from the August peak, but up 169 percent from a year earlier.

For the five months ending in September, banks foreclosed on more than 1,000 homes each month. That compares to a peak of 674 foreclosures in October 1996, as the housing slump of the 1990s came to an end.

Mark Schniepp, an economist and director of the California Economic Forecast, said notices of default appear to have peaked in April, five months before the state law's foreclosure provision was enacted. He said such filings were already trending down because delinquencies on subprime loans peaked earlier this year.

And stronger housing sales in Orange County in recent months are also contributing to a decline in NODs, said Schniepp, who discussed the trend during the recent UCLA Anderson Forecast for Orange County and in a follow-up interview with the Register. Such filings are strongly influenced by housing sales, he said.

"Housing led us into this downturn, and housing is expected to lead us out," he said.

Foreclosures in Orange County will peak by the end of this year, if they haven't already, Schniepp said. It usually takes about seven months after a peak in NODs for foreclosures to hit a similar wall, he said. By that math, November could be the beginning of the end for foreclosures.

Schniepp originally expected foreclosures to peak in the third quarter at around 4,000, but this quarter could top that. However, foreclosures should decline next year, he said.

Still, he has mixed feelings about the state law, known as SB 1137, requiring communication between borrowers and lenders. The law might do some good by giving borrowers more time, but it also distorts the housing correction, he said.

"It's not allowing the free market to clear all this junk out as quickly as possible," he said. "We are prolonging the inevitable."

Several consumer groups strongly supported the bill. They liked both the communication required and the bill's doubling to 60 days the eviction notice required to tenants renting a foreclosed property.

Paul Leonard, director in the Oakland office of the Center for Responsible Lending, said it is encouraging that lenders and loan servicers appear to be complying with the law.

But he said Gov. Schwarzenegger hasn't said much publically about the law since signing it.

"I don't think they have any measures in place to measure its success, to get a handle on how many meetings are happening as result of (the law)," Leonard said.

Leonard said without strong follow-up from state officials, the law may have little impact on actual foreclosures. It may only delay foreclosures, he said.

Still, the immediate impact of the bill is striking, said Sean O'Toole, president of ForeclosureRadar.com.

Before the bill became law on Sept. 8, banks typically filed 100 to 150 notices of default each day in the county, O'Toole said. For example, on the Friday before the law was enacted banks filed 162 NODs, and the following Monday, the first day of the new regulation, banks filed just 18 NODs. That's an 89 percent drop in filings in one business day.

And NOD filings fell even further, languishing in the single digits in the days that followed, O'Toole said. They have rebounded slightly, but remain low, he said.

O'Toole dismisses much of that decline as a paperwork issue, saying it will take lenders a while to get used to the new law and then notices of default will rebound.

However, there are other pressures on NODs, he said. Before the law was enacted notices of default were flat or down a bit from the April peak not because more people are paying their mortgages but because lenders can't handle all the loans going bad, O'Toole said.

"We hit capacity of what lenders can do," he said.

However, O'Toole suspects lenders have been encouraged by the recent jump in sales. They may be thinking if they hold off on foreclosure they will get a higher price later, O'Toole said.

But that is backward thinking, O'Toole said.

"Demand is going up because prices are going down," O'Toole said.

In other words, lenders won't get more money for their foreclosures by delaying them, he said.

Another factor that could lead to fewer foreclosures is the October settlement between Bank of America, its subsidiary Countrywide Financial, and 11 states over Countrywide's lending practices. Starting Dec. 1, as many as 400,000 customers could get $8.4 billion in interest rate and principal reductions on their mortgages to avoid foreclosure. As much as $3.5 billion could go to California borrowers.